A lot of big updates within congress coming this week. Here is a recap of the future of our economy, the way things are headed and my thoughts on some additional stimulus ideas such as the $5000 loan.
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Morning Brew Economic Piece May 12th:
When an athlete gets hurt, all they think about is the timeline for getting back on the field. The same goes for an injured economy: How long will it take to recover?
Probably years
Economists were hoping for a V-shaped economic recovery: a rapid slide down followed by a quick climb back. But many are scaling expectations back to a Nike swoosh-shaped recovery in which output may not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021 (or later).
Even worse would be a W-shaped recovery, where the economy weathers one recession only to faceplant into a second.
“If a second downturn were to flare up, it’s far from clear that Congress would be ready to offer trillions more to enable businesses to survive yet another round of months-long shutdowns,” the AP reports.
Recoveries don’t happen evenly
A recession’s full effects can take years to ripple out. The Great Recession technically ended in June 2009, yet bank failures peaked in 2010. And as late as 2013, state and local governments were still slashing jobs.
81% of small businesses think COVID-19 could impact them for 12–16 months. By some estimates, half of small businesses could fold within six, and laid off workers could require years to find new roles.
One worrying trend: More businesses are moving to permanent layoffs as they close factories and reduce operations.
Manufacturing, which never returned to pre-2008 levels, is especially vulnerable: Between 2010 and 2019, the sector added 1.4 million jobs. In April, it lost 1.3 million (including temporary layoffs).
The Becker Friedman Institute predicts that 42% of layoffs will be permanent.
Business closures also have upstream effects. Commercial real estate owners are expected to swallow big losses, then pass those up to banks when they can’t make debt payments…which could push banks into failure.
Of course, you wouldn’t know any of this by looking at the stock market.
21 comments
Hello my friend I'm bill from Brandywine wv
This new packages sucks and is not enough to keep USA 🇺🇸 out of a depression.
Lol, I know it's a joke, but I have an issue with your "kick them out if they cough…"
I walked into a store the other day, they were spraying down carts as I walked in, awesome! Until I got a face full of cleaner on an inhale….yes, I coughed (into my shoulder),… lol!
converse
I got my stimulus payment today.
10 years from now? God I don't even wanna be alive then.
Very happy with money in the pocket on the other hand where the money comes from is a hiccup
I wish they would would just make up their minds and say yes your getting a STIMULUS CHECK FOR THE NEXT FEWS MONTH …..OR SAY NO WE CAN'T BECAUSE THEY GOT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ON THE EDGE !!!!
Still haven't got my first check 😕
if people needed the first one for bills and food thatount is not much help again,if they want lto help do right by the people after all whom gives them there jobs by electing them in can also not keep them in im on a fixed income on ssd and my income does not change ,but not everyone is that lucky do your people right.
In the last stimulus action Republicans gave tons of millionaires $1.6 million each and crumbs to the serfs? Now Mitch and republicans say it costs too much to give any more to the serfs. Prices are up…?let the serfs eat cake or cat food. Biden and democrats are rejoicing….thanks, Mitch.
Hi Brian, how can college students benefit from this? As a graduate who filed dependently as I as attending university, a stimulus check and unemployment cannot be assisted with. With potential opportunities being rescinded in March, it's only getting harder and harder for class of 2020 students to attain a Full Time job. Is the only hope to continue to apply for jobs? Thanks a bunch
The government wants to make sure they'll get their money back? That's the tax payers money… and it should be used to support them.
I didn’t recieve the 1st stimulus for my child. The one who prepared our income tax 2019 (last year) made a mistake of not icluding my child so they did the amendment. How are we going to claim that $500 for my child?
I see no happy ending
I think you should rename your YouTube show, "Common Sense" with Brian. Your parents are proud man. Maybe you should think about more topics that the normal American people are interested in?
Let the government tell us please. YouTube is a welfare and hoopla app
Who thinks this bill will get approved tomorrow?!
I appreciate your commentary on the bill and what’s going on. I’ve seen several channels who clearly have no idea about the politics behind it and mislead viewers into thinking a bill like this is anywhere close to passing. Also, great outro music.
Great video, Brian! Definitely going to try to keep an optimistic outlook on all of this. Also, one-off question, but what kind of mic are you using?
Man